osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,
osewalrus
osewalrus

Why the Republicans will win in 2016 (and why that may not be a bad thing in the long term)

2016 is going to be a very weird election. It is the same kind of weirdness we saw in 1976-82. We are seeing a massive demographic shift in the electorate. This shift will hurt Democrats worse -- which will surprise just about everyone.

Factors to consider:

1. Dems have pretty much been eating their young and supressing younger leadership for the last 20+ years. This election cycle continues this.

2. A new generation of African American leadership has recognized that their political power comes from withholding votes. Unlike the previous generation of leadership, they appear to be cognizant of the game theory idea of a "punishment round." They will go two full election cycles, 2016 and 2018, to get their candidates into position and force the Democratic party to embrace a racial justice platform.

Being young, they do not believe their life can get worse under a Republican administration and Republican congress.

3. The Republican conservative movement, while older, whiter and therefore smaller than the rest of the electorate combined, is far more unified.

4. No one can predict how the current social media organization and fragmentation of the mass media will impact the electorate. Again, there is a profound split demographically in how people experience news.

It is unclear if a viable 3rd party movement will emerge. If we will see an Anderson or a Perot-like figure able to capture the large portion of the electorate dissatisfied with their current choices. Trump could play the Perot role, possibly bringing in a Democratic win like Bill Clinton's win in 1992. 
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