osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

I really ought to do work, but . . .

Recent job figures very interesting. Pattern we are seeing very reminiscent of 2010. Growth spurt petering out. In 2010, cause of decline was clearly end of stimulus and the fact that it wasn't big enough to jump start economy in Keynsian fashion (if one is a Keynsian; for free market guys,cause of 2010 slow down was because government effort to meddle with natural course of economy is always doomed to failure and expenditures simply prolong pain until natural economy can adjust in standard boom/bust cycle). Here, is less certain. Clearly slow down of demand in Europe and overall economic anxiety has impact, as does "austerity lite" policy we have pursued for last two years. Reentry of some unemployed who had given up into workforce combined with newly minted graduates entering workforce contributed to higher unemployment rate.

Gonna be interesting to see how this impacts election, particularly if pattern holds (job growth anemic or non-existent between now and November). Way too early to tell. Romney argument is that Obama's policies are ineffective and he offers change. Obama's argument is that Republicans have blocked his plans at every turn, and that Republican policies are same that got us into this mess in first place.

From a personal perspective, I confess I'm torn. OTOH, it is much easier for me to personally make money if the Rs take the Senate and the WH. I did well in 2008 because Republican polices lead to fairly predictable outcomes and it's just a question of timing. Assuming Rs follow the general policies they have outlined for the last two years (i.e., the Ryan Budget), it is a relatively straightforward matter to anticipate the market and cash in -- assuming my underlying understanding of the economics is right.

I also think that the only way we are going to break the ideological deadlock in this country is to let the conservative revolution run its course. Dems had the ball in 2009, and could not unite behind an economic policy that would offer substantial change. Nor could they win the hearts and minds of the American public generally. We need to completely undo the submerged social state to remind Americans why our grandparents and great-grandparents put it in place. As the regions hit hardest will be those most resistant to progressive economic policies, there is also a modest measure-for-measure factor.

OTOH, the outcome is really rather sucky for lots of people, many of whom actively oppose the policy choices a Republican majority and Republican President would make. It's also sucky for me personally, since even if I do fairly well economically (and I may not), I live in the same country as everyone else.

Not like I have a lot of say in the outcome either way . . . .

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