osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

A few thoughts as we FINALLY Hold Our Election

1. It is entirely likely that Obama will lose at least one state Nate Silver gives him odds of winning.

2. More importantly, even if it is -- according to the most recent polls -- likely (but by no means certain) that Obama will win the electoral vote, and probably (but by no means certain) the popular vote, it is still *numerically* close. Do not freak out if this goes down to the wee hours for final tallies.

3. Fivethirtyeight usually does good live blogging about how candidates are overperforming or underperforming their poll numbers as the votes come in. For those craving data over drama, this is a good choice. For those craving comic relief, I recommend Indecision Forever blog (warning, has clear D bias).

4. The fact is, half the country still disagrees with the other half. They disagree so fundamentally that it is "obvious" how to interpret the facts and it mus be that the other half are [some derogatory description to explain obvious error of their ways]. Good policy comes from persuading people who radically disagree with you that a specific outcome is beneficial for them. As an advocate, I often work together with people with whom a strongly disagree generally but where we can find reason why a specific policy is to our mutual advantage.

So whichever candidate you root for, don't despair. OK, not possible if you lose. If you lose, take until next week to despair. Then start thinking about how to actually get stuff done. Being a citizen goes well beyond the ritual of voting. I know that's difficult in today's world, so do what you can as you can.

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