osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,
osewalrus
osewalrus

Job creation drop-off in line with pre-sequester predictions, actually . . .

So at the end of February, we made across the board federa cuts, including into basic assistance programs that pay for things like food stamps and fuel assistance.

In the first month since those cuts, retailers took a major hit, resulting in a massive slowdown of economic growth.

Oddly, this was the result that was predicted last year by a fair number of analysts as part of the whole fiscal cliff thing. Sequestration alone was supposed to shave something like 1%-2% off expected GDP growth because of the drop in spending from people losing fed benefits and the firing or furloughing of fed and contractor employees. True, combining it with the sudden rise in taxes would have been more devastating, which was why it was the combination that produced "the fiscal cliff." But just sequestration alone was predicted to have a negative impact on economic growth -- just not a catastrophic one.

Yes, cold snap added insult to injury, especially given the cuts in fuel assistance. But if it is just weather related we should see a significant bounce back in April. So we should wait another month or two before putting a definitive "nailed it" in the Keynsian Korner. But I don't see why folks are so surprised.
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