osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

Going Through Teh Crazy

Heinlien was right. False Dawn in '69, now the Crazy Years.

More seriously, and reluctantly, it appears we must actually go through the crazy of an actual shut down and actual default. And I confess I have developed an academic curiosity as to what will happen. Part of me believes that the consequences of default are so potentially bad that the world will basically ignore it. A form of protective cognitive dissonance for our financial system. After all, this is why people seem to underweight the possibility of it actually happening. It can't happen, so it won't happen.

As I often remind my fellow advocates (and others from time to time) failure is always an option.

We should note, of course, that the true believers will never concede that they are wrong. I refer to this as "making cakes for the Queen of Heaven" (see Jeremiah 44:15-18). It also helps that for some larger number of base members the issue is no longer pragmatically what happens but how to assign blame. If the world does not end (which has become the measure of something bad happening), then it was all exaggeration and lies to dissuade us. And if catastrophe occurs? Well, it was all the other side's fault anyway." Or worse, such sacrifice and collapse are necessary to achieve our noble goal -- and would have happened anyway (or worse!) had the wicked on the other side had their way.

Which is why we need to go through the crazy. Things apparently have to get so awful for a sufficiently large number of people for sufficiently long enough that they will actually give enough of a crap to wake up and do something about it. Hopefully, this will not require recourse to our rich history of political violence in this country. But I sadly note that it was precisely this threat in the Progressive Era that inspired serious efforts at social reform.

But it is also possible that the rest of the world, dismayed at our inability to govern ourselves, will make other arrangements. Rather hard to do, given how central the U.S. is to the world economy. But we may succeed in marginalizing ourselves.

"The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote."

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