osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

I Have Nothing Intelligent To Say On The Iran Deal

This is one of those cases where the subject matter is so detailed and the details are so critically important that I actually have no way to evaluate whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. Some of this appears to depend on an acceptable end game. If you *knew* that Iran would only be able to use enriched uranium for peaceful purposes, would it be OK? Or is it so easy to flip the technology that letting them have that capacity is too destabilizing?

Keep in mind we're talking not just a one year or five year horizon. The question is whether there is a level of confidence that the program could be constrained so as to avoid weaponization on a 50 year time frame (further than that is just too damn hard to predict). Weighing against this is the consideration that Iran might otherwise be able to weaponize their program despite sanctions, which would then present the nasty alternative of doing nothing or a potential military strike against a fairly well armed and populous power with significant allies.

So I have no clue what to think about this.

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