January 9th, 2008

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The Machine Roars To Life: NH Goes With Last Week's Conventional Wisdom

Well, as one might imagine, I am disappointed with the results in NH. It seems clear that the one thing we can learn from this election is how bad the current polling models are.

What struck me off the top is how much the results here reflect the pre-Iowa conventional wisdom, with hilary winning soundly among women who see her as validating their lives and with the Democratic machine vote (unions went heavily Hilary, as did "core democrats").

Indeed, had Iowa not happened, this is exactly the result one would expect. Which leads to the question: was Iowa a fluke? If so, why? Or is NH, where Clinton has been building a "firewall" since this summer when she was doing lackluster in Iowa, make NH the exception. I expect endless debate on whether the "emotional moment" made the difference in "reconnecting" with women, because our mainstream media loves the surfaces.

But on we roll to Nevada, with a debate scheduled along the way. If the difference is caucus v. primary (as some suggest), will Nevada's caucus change the dynamic along the way? And what about SEIU (with 60K members here), and other organized labor?

(There is, of course, the MI primary, but as the Democratic Party will not seat their delegates none of the top 3 Ds are campaigning there.

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