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Wednesday, March 5th, 2008

Time Event
6:18a
And the band rolls on . . . .
Clinton takes 3 of 4, staying in the race. But Dems are getting nervous. McCain is now last man standing in the Republican race, while Clinton and Obama continue to hack at each other. Good for the Dems to stay in the news? Or bad for the ems to be going after each other while the Rs conserve money for their candidate?

RI & VT broke pretty much as expected. The big surprise was Clinton's strong showing in OH. TX was essentially a split decision, perhaps even more so if Obama wins the caucus vote by the same narrow margin that Clinton won the primary. But as with so much in the election, perception is important and Clinton acheived her goal for staying alive -- winning in both TX and OH.

Clinton is already talking about PA, which makes it likely that Obama will pick up Wyoming and Mississippi en route. Wyoming falls into the pattern of small Democratic states in which Clinton has not invested significant resources, and Miss is southern with a heavy African American population. But these states cannot give Obama enough delegates to close out Clinton before PA. This raises the question, can Clinton repeat in PA her success in OH?

But even if she does, the nomination math for either candidate is getting very tricky. Even if Clinton wins in PA, IN, KY and WV by margins similar to OH, and holds Obama to narrow wins and split decisions in the other states, it does not appear possible for her to win enough delegates before the convention to avoid either a credentials fight for Florida and Michigan or a brokered convention. But by the same token, Obama is looking at a similar mathematical problem -- especially if he loses PA by the same 10% margin he lost OH.

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