May 7th, 2008

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Reflections on Primaries

I hate insomnia.

So the band plays on, with each side -- as has become customary -- with its reasons why s/he emerged vicrtorious. Obama took a healthy 15% in NC, while Clinton can claim a win in Indiana. But only a narrow win, weakneing her argument that she alone can carry the "Reagan Democrats" in the swing states.

Based on CNN exit polls, African Americans overwhelmingly supported Obama (90% in both states). Also in both states, Obama did well with younger voters (capturing the white 18-25 vote even where he lost all other white demographics), those with higher education, self-identified liberals, and -- interestingly enough -- those who identify themselves as "very religious" attending church (or equivalent) more than weekly and among those who classified themselves as not religious.

Clinton by contrast, largely captured the white vote in NC (excpet 18-25), and consistently captured voters 65+, voters who identified as more conservative, gun owners, and those without collee education in boh states. Indiana had some interesting surprises in the exit polls, with Obama doing reasonabley well even among working class whites (spliting the covetted $30K-$50K income set 50/50).

Clinton did better with voters who decided in the three days leading to the election, and significantly better among voters who decided on election day. Obama did uniformly better among first time voters.

Unsurprisingly, Clinton has now begun to talk much more aggressively about Florida and Michigan. These states contain huge populations of what have become her demographics. Especially if any kind of election were held after the end of the college school year, she could expect to do extremely well. It is for this reason that the Obama camp (including the not inconsiderable number of superdelegates pledged to Obama) will fight tooth and nail to keep FL or MI delegates from being seated in any way that matters.

Given that we are heading for a brokered conention, the logical thing to do is seat them and not let them vote in the first round. Since everyone is released if there is a second round, there is no reason to prohibit them from voting in any subsequent round. This still gives Clinton a chance, if she is successful at blcking Obama in the first round and can then make her case directly to all the released delgates.

We need a good old fashioned Lincoln/Douglass debate. None of this moderator crap. One candidate speaks for an hour, the other for an hour and a half, then the first candidate gets a half hour rebutal.

Did I mention I will be in Denver for the Convention?
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Link Harvest: Of Parking Pages And Security

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2008/04/when_monetizing_isp_traffic_go.html

Many broadband ISPs are now using a "parking page" for bad URLs. When you type a URL that does not resolve to an IP address, rather than get a 404 not found message, the DNS server for the ISP sends you to a specific parking page that serves up adds.

The practice is not new. Verisign got in trouble for it with Sitefinder. MS has something like it in IE. But now it appears that the practice may create security problems.

This also highlights the problem of centralized control by ISPs and allowing ISPs to override user preferences. It creates a gaping security hole, potentially shared by millions of subscribers.

Providers argue that "network neutrality" would prevent them from offering protection to users by impeding the way they manage the network. As this example shows, however, centralized decision making for millions of subscribers has its own problems.
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Bill To Make DOJ Enforcement Arm of IP Mafia Passes House

http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i4552e786232dd91baa8a825cc2f79780

Sadly, one of the side effects of Nancy Pelosi being from California is that she has totally gorged on the IP Mafia Cool Aid (we'll savor the irony of my using a trade marked term there and appreciate it's First Amendment fair use). This passed on suspension of the rules, a procedure supposedly reserved for "uncontroversial" bills but used by Pelosi previously to do special favors for beloved lobbyist buddies (see my December post Is Nancy Pelosi Possessed By A Demon Out To Destroy The Democratic Party?
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Questioning the Copyright Status of Happy Birthday

This article raises serious questions over whether the song "Happy Birthday" is actually still covered by copyright -- despite the fact that Warner Music apparently receives millions of dollars every year in royalties. It is also interesting to note that the lyrics of "Happy birthday to you" is actually a filk of the original lyrics, "Good morning to all."