Why I love mainstream media part whatever
The constant undertone in the media narrative of the race is that McCain is competitive when he shouldn't be, because the Obama campaign is somehow underperforming. This get repeatedly pretty constantly, with news that McCain is "tightening the race" or the race is "competitive" or even "practically even." Coupled with tales of Obama's fundraising talents and the ongoing media focus on the Clintons as constituting a second front for Obama within the party, the whole is designed to maintain that Obama is doing poorly when he should be doing well.
Maybe. But my gut sense is telling me there is not actually a heck of a lot of movement and hasn't been since the primary pretty much wrapped up. I expect to see patterns similar to what we saw in the primaries -- a lot of people waiting to see the candidates debate (I expect the conventions to be much more heavily watched than usual) and a lot of soft support and undecideds making up their minds in the last few days before the election.
There are simply too many wild cards right now -- especially in the question of voter registration, which the MSM is finally cluing into as a major Obama strategy. As in the primaries, everyone knows polling data this far out is highly suspect, yet people are obsessed with the "horse race" coverage (including its proxy, fundraising).
But as always, for media watchers such as myself, is the interaction between the MSM coverage (including its tendency to be uniform) and how broadcast media in particular shape the public opinion. As always, PEW does an excellent non-partisan job cutting through the nonsense and providing nice quantification on actual media coverage.