March 13th, 2016

PK Icon

(no subject)

Coming up this week for the Dems: Was Michigan a fluke? Can we even tell from such majorly different states as Ohio, Ill. and Florida? Each one of these states has a set of demographics that makes it very difficult to call. Any wobbles in the polling could be due to a variety of factors.

Keep in mind that what I am looking at has much less to do with ultimate winner as with the state of polling and whether candidates are significantly over or under performing their polls. We are now in primaries using exit polling, so responses are considered more reliable than to entrance polling in caucus states.

Polling numbers here are from the most recent NBC/Wall St. J. polling, which is pretty much in synch with what RCP has been showing for the last few days. (MO was from the Kansas City, MO local paper).

Collapse )

So it will be interesting Tuesday night one way or the other. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know if we are still dealing with a systemic problem in the polling models or not. Too many unique factors in the key states.

PK Icon

A Meditation on Bereisheit and Politics

We are seeing a great deal of hate bubbling through the world right now. It should be recalled that the world before creation is described in Genesis not as dark, or empty, but as "to hu va vo hu," a bubbling chaos. The first creation of God was to bring light and darkness in their proper order. Indeed, the darkness comes first. "For it was evening and morning of the First day."

The enemy of light is not dark. Day follows the night, and the night is not always evil. If the light is love, the dark is not hate, but grief. Grief is part of life, and makes us appreciate the light all the more. "For the light is sweet, and it is good to see the Sun."

It is in the bubbling chaos that we revert to the state of godlessness Neither the joy of the light or the grief of the dark, the bubbling chaos of rage and hate is without form or substance. It strikes out at whatever it touches, heedless of the damage it does even to itself. But even in such times, "the Spirit of the Lord hovers upon the face of the waters."

We are made in God's image. We have within us the breath of the Divine. We can in our own little way, create a world of joy and love, punctuated in the proper time by loss and grief. Or we can return the universe to rage and chaos. We are blessed, or cursed, to live in a time when these choices are set forth fairly starkly. We can see millions of people choosing one way or the other. Make your own choice wisely -- and own it as your own.