Coming up this week for the Dems: Was Michigan a fluke? Can we even tell from such majorly different states as Ohio, Ill. and Florida? Each one of these states has a set of demographics that makes it very difficult to call. Any wobbles in the polling could be due to a variety of factors.
Keep in mind that what I am looking at has much less to do with ultimate winner as with the state of polling and whether candidates are significantly over or under performing their polls. We are now in primaries using exit polling, so responses are considered more reliable than to entrance polling in caucus states.
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Polling numbers here are from the most recent NBC/Wall St. J. polling, which is pretty much in synch with what RCP has been showing for the last few days. (MO was from the Kansas City, MO local paper).
So it will be interesting Tuesday night one way or the other. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know if we are still dealing with a systemic problem in the polling models or not. Too many unique factors in the key states.