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Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

Time Event
7:13a
A few random reflections on Indiana Primary
I decided to take a long vacay from FB mostly because the primary seems to bring out the worst in people. In some ways, that's a backhanded compliment on reality -- people are taking things very seriously and feel passionately about them rather than disengaged. Even the cynical people I know who would like to stay cynical and disengaged are annoyed because they are finding it harder to stay properly cynically aloof.

But, like any addict, I can't help but make some random observations.

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5:53p
Link Harvest: Nate Confesses Error On Republicans, Democratic Recanting still needed
One reason I like Nate Silver is he does come out and admit when he got stuff totally wrong, and actually tries to figure out why.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump/

But none of the folks who are asking why they got the Republican nomination so wrong are asking themselves why they also seem to have gotten the Democratic nomination wrong in terms of everything but the ultimate outcome.

i have really got to write up my demographic snake thing so I can explain to these folks why their assumptions no longer hold. Frankly, it looks more like the last 40 years of politics are an outlier, but they happen to form the basis of most hardcore statistical analysis in political science because we have much better survey data and the dominance of a fairly homogenized demographic group made things look very predictable.

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