How Likely is a "Democratic Wave Election in 2016."
It is generally agreed that for Dems to take back the House, as well as the Senate, they need a "wave election." Generally, a wave election is one where the electorate decides to sweep out a party and replace it with another party at a much higher than usual rate. Since elections are traditionally considered pretty stable, "waves" that eliminate large numbers of incumbents (and Dems would need to capture 30 seats to win a House majority, a very high number) are considered very rare. How likely is a "wave" election for Democrats? I muse on this below. But despite popular wisdom, waves have become much more the norm in recent years, and there is good reason to think 2016 could be another.( Collapse )