osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,
osewalrus
osewalrus

Reflections on Primaries

I hate insomnia.

So the band plays on, with each side -- as has become customary -- with its reasons why s/he emerged vicrtorious. Obama took a healthy 15% in NC, while Clinton can claim a win in Indiana. But only a narrow win, weakneing her argument that she alone can carry the "Reagan Democrats" in the swing states.

Based on CNN exit polls, African Americans overwhelmingly supported Obama (90% in both states). Also in both states, Obama did well with younger voters (capturing the white 18-25 vote even where he lost all other white demographics), those with higher education, self-identified liberals, and -- interestingly enough -- those who identify themselves as "very religious" attending church (or equivalent) more than weekly and among those who classified themselves as not religious.

Clinton by contrast, largely captured the white vote in NC (excpet 18-25), and consistently captured voters 65+, voters who identified as more conservative, gun owners, and those without collee education in boh states. Indiana had some interesting surprises in the exit polls, with Obama doing reasonabley well even among working class whites (spliting the covetted $30K-$50K income set 50/50).

Clinton did better with voters who decided in the three days leading to the election, and significantly better among voters who decided on election day. Obama did uniformly better among first time voters.

Unsurprisingly, Clinton has now begun to talk much more aggressively about Florida and Michigan. These states contain huge populations of what have become her demographics. Especially if any kind of election were held after the end of the college school year, she could expect to do extremely well. It is for this reason that the Obama camp (including the not inconsiderable number of superdelegates pledged to Obama) will fight tooth and nail to keep FL or MI delegates from being seated in any way that matters.

Given that we are heading for a brokered conention, the logical thing to do is seat them and not let them vote in the first round. Since everyone is released if there is a second round, there is no reason to prohibit them from voting in any subsequent round. This still gives Clinton a chance, if she is successful at blcking Obama in the first round and can then make her case directly to all the released delgates.

We need a good old fashioned Lincoln/Douglass debate. None of this moderator crap. One candidate speaks for an hour, the other for an hour and a half, then the first candidate gets a half hour rebutal.

Did I mention I will be in Denver for the Convention?
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