osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

More insomnia Driven Political Musings

A few thoughts on tonight's developments.

Well, it is certainly impressive how many West Virginian's turned out to vote. the West VA polling data shows that the split in the Democratic Party keeps getting uglier. But the real interesting voter dynamic is in Mississippi. Which paradigm will dominate in November?

As yesterday's W.VA primary and the Miss special election show, it's not just about how many people show up for you, it's also about how many people stay home from the other side.

The Dems have now won three special elections this year, taking seats in what should have been "safe" Republican districts. One was Hastert's old seat in Il., then there was Cayuex in LA, and now Travis Childers in Miss. Critical has been not just an increase in Dem voter turn out, but a significant drop in R voter turn out. What is interesting is that this one finally has even the most optimistic Republican leaders saying "we have a problem."

The LA and Miss results also raise questions about whether Obama is going to be a drag in Southern states. The answer appears to be "no." In both LA and Miss, the Republicans pushed the anti-Obama button as hard as he could, but to no effect. Indeed, in Miss, it may actually have helped mobilize black voters -- who turned out in record numbers to make alliance with the "hard workin' white folk" that support Clinton to elect a socially conservative Democrat.

As Dems puzzle over whether the rift in the party is growing worse and whether it will heel in time for the November elections, the results from the special elections will provide considerable grist for the Superdelegate mill.

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