osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,
osewalrus
osewalrus

Brief Reflections On Or & KY

So 5% of Democrats in KY prefer neither Obama or Clinton. Ummm.....

Obama winning Oregon by about 60% is sufficient to ward off the problems for the Super Delegates of his lopsided losses in Appalachia. Had Obama suffered a significant loss or only squeaked by in Oregon, it would have breathed new life into the Clinton campaign. But as it stands now, forget it.

Looking ahead to the national map for the general election, it is interesting to guess what states are likely to flip either R or D. Part of that is (a) who stays home? and (b) machine dems v. die-hard Clinton supporters. It is reasonable to assume that NH and NJ and MA and NY and CA (which went for Clinton) will stay in the Democratic fold. PA, which went for Bush in '04, is more problematic. But Obama only lost by 8 points in PA (as opposed to the landslides in KY and WV), and I think the machine Dems and Union members who voted Clinton will flip to Obama in sufficient numbers to carry PA, especially if Republicans are depressed and staying home.

Michigan remains untested. But it is a heavy union state and that is likely to translate to Obama carrying the state -- especially if turn out by African Americans is strong. I am giving Florida to the Rs on the basis of defections to the R standard by Latinos and Jews much more likely to outweigh heavier turn out by African Americans. OTOH, a hurricane or two and the folks in Florida might decide they care less about skin color and more about jobs.

The D hopes of flipping AZ, NM, and probably NV died when McCain became the nominee. CO, however, remains possible. I also think that Alaska may be flippable owing to Republican fatigue scandal and the fact that they are of the Libertarian wing of the R party. MO could clearly flip, as could TN (based on how well Harold Ford did in '06) and VA (which has trended D for the last few years). Obama was competitive among Dems in IN, and I expect will be competitive in the general election.

Other states are harder to predict, but I do not write off any state for the Ds at his point (outside the southwest) depending on the economic situation and who stays home v. who is energized. Should be a fun ride.
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