This USA Today interactive state-by-state poll tracker is extremely informative. Note the following:
1) Many states Obama was supposedly losing, such as Michigan, PA and Wisconsin are now solidly for Obama (support above 5%). NH is trending Obama. But Obama has substantial leads in all states that voted for Kerry with the exception of NH, where Obama has a slight lead.
2) Other states, which are supposed to be locks for the Rs, are too close to call. This is especially noteworthy in North and South Carolina.
3) In many of these states, the trend lines are in favor of Obama. There are some exceptions, but they are hardcore red states that appear to have consistently trended to McCain as they have gone negative and especially after picking Palin.
Not definitive by a long shot. But all those gnashing teeth and fretting over the Wilder Effect would do well to get a grip.