osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,
osewalrus
osewalrus

Question on survey stats

Does anyone know how long the "generic ballot" question has been used and whether it has a good track record?

My sense is that "generic ballot" survey questions -- which pit the incumbent against the "generic" opponent of the other party -- have some utility in that people tend to vote by party brand in recent years. OTOH, I suspect they are a better measure of dissatisfaction than a predictor of actual voter behavior -- especially where highly polarized primaries produce more "extreme" (rather than "generic") candidates.

Would love to know of any research on the subject.
Subscribe
  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    default userpic

    Your IP address will be recorded 

  • 0 comments