Why Disruption Won't Happen In Video
A fairly good summary of the arguments of why the cable and Hollywood dinosaurs will win against the supposedly nimble Silicon Valley mammals. http://abovethecrowd.com/2010/04/28/affiliate-fees-make-the-world-go-round/
Mind you, we could use regulatory and antitrust means to enable the development of competition.
Alternatively, we can wait and see if viewer behavior changes sufficiently to not care about first run programming.