osewalrus (osewalrus) wrote,

Study Rates Professional Pundit Prognosticators.

In a fairly comprehensive study endorsed by the Poynter Institute, a team at Hamilton College rated 26 individuals who made multiple, testable predictions in the mass media over the 16-month period beginning September 2007 and ending December 2008. The study rated these "prognosticators" for accuracy. The study found Paul Krugman to be the most accurate prognosticator. The study noted that the bulk of his predictions were in his field of expertise (economics), but also noted that his predictions were detailed, non-obvious and dealt with events to take place in the reasonably distant future (one year). Worst predictor was Cal Thomas.

General indicators associated with successful prognostications were:

1. Conditional predictions were less likely to be accurate than non-conditional predictions.

2. Liberals tended to be better prognosticators than conservatives.

3. Holding a JD degree was a negative indicator.

Executive Summary (with links to full report) here: http://www.hamilton.edu/news/polls/pundit/executive-summary

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